Monday, April 30, 2012

Market Roundup | 30 April 2012

FBM30 1570.61   +2.81points (+0.18%)    Volume 945mil     Value 1,382mil 

1) KLCI ended April on a positive note, as worries on effect of weekend rally dissipates. Index rose to a high of 1574.49 (+6.69pts) before closing offbest on news of Spain falling into another recession while S&P downgraded spanish banks. Investors stayed away in a holiday shorten trading week with volume falling below 1bil. Broader market remained negative with losers leading gainers 388:297. Futures closed 1565.5 (5 points discount).


2) Heavyweights: CIMB+1.09% RM7.41, DIGI+0.75% RM4.04, GENM+1.32% RM3.84, BAT+1.35% RM55.54, IOICORP+0.39% RM5.22, PETGAS-0.95% RM16.78, YTL-1.22% RM1.62, AMMB-0.64% RM6.26

3) DBT: RSAWIT 70mil @ RM.935 (5.3% PUC, 13.4% discount), ARMADA 50mil @ RM3.95, SUNREIT 6mil @ RM1.27

4) Situationals:
OSK+10% RM1.71, RHB+1.66% RM7.37: RHB and OSK has received notification from Bank Negara Malaysia that the Minister of Finance has granted approval for the Proposed Merger under the  Banking and Financial Institutions Act, 1989.  The terms and conditions of the Proposed Merger will be announced subject to the execution of the conditional share purchase agreement for the Proposed Merger. 

KNM-1.18% RM0.835: The Board of KNM announce that it had approved for the company to undertake a proposed fund raising exercise involving a Rights Issuance of RM200 million. The definitive terms for the Rights Issue will be determined by the board of the company subject to the advice of the company's corporate advisors to be appointed in due course. KNM will be seeking its shareholders' approval for the Proposed Rights Issue at a general meeting.

 5) KENCANA

Its wholly owned subsidiary, Kencana HL Sdn. Bhd. in consortium with Shinryo (M) Sdn Bhd, signed a contract with Petronas Gas Berhad to provide engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning  of two Cogeneration plants, having combined capacity of 50MW of electrical power and steam capacity of 120 ton per hour. The Scope of Works of this Contract in general includes project management, engineering, procurement, construction and installation of steel structures, piping and equipment as well as civil works. The portion of the contract value for Kencana HL is estimated at RM35 million. The Contract is expected to be fully completed by first quarter of calendar year 2014.  

Both Kencana and SapuraCrest will be suspended till the 21 May to facilitate the merger of both companies. The merged entity will be the largest integrated O&G service provider and have a market cap in excess of RM10bn and an order book of over RM13bn. Expect a placement play upon requotation.

6) Market - global uncertainty coupled with election concerns domestically will continue to see investors remained side lined.

Immediate direction to be dictated by US ISM numbers and consumer spending report.

Morning Call | 30 April 2012


MORNING CALL                                       30 April 2012

FLOWS;

BUYS:  Affin, CIMB, Kencana     

SELLS:  TNB, Digi, GentM   

Technical Stock Alert;
1) BUMI ARMADA (RM4.06) - sell off due to placement of 293m shares @ RM3.95 looks overdone as fundamentals of the company remain intact. RSI is now at 25, the lowest level since its listing and MACD showing a significant divergence. The company's higher than market PE valuations is justified by its strong earnings visibility and likelyhood of the group securing a further 2 FPSO contracts this FY. Trading buy, immediate resistance RM4.28  

2) UMW (RM7.85) - price is touching its 5 year high levels on expectations of a turn around in its associate company WSP and better contribution from its oil rigs. It is however facing headwinds in terms of vehicles sold particularly by its 28% associate PERODUA due to recent credit tightening measures guided by the Central Bank. Sell into strength ahead of an expected correct with RSI above 75 and MACD showing signs of cutting downwards. Immediate support RM7.60. 




News Bits | 30 April 2012


Highlights of the day
§  Economics (Money and Banking): March 2012: Fiercer competition as annualized YTD loans growth slows. [download report]
March 2012 overall loans grew marginally faster by 12.2% y-o-y after growing 11.9% y-o-y in February. On annualized YTD basis however, there is a clear slowdown in total loans growth. The slower loans growth was due to the banks being more stringent in approving loans. At the same time, the banks became more competitive against each other as average lending rate fell by 34bps while cost remained the same. M3 remained accommodative. The OPR is expected to remain unchanged.

Other reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  Berjaya Land: Posco to seal deal with BLand
§  MAS: Sabah, Sarawak to get major share in MASwings
§  MAS: Share swap off, MAS to raise RM3bn in bonds
§  Multi-Purpose: Selling insurance arm
§  Carlsberg: Price hike cannot cover higher input cost
§  Proton: Facing major shake-up
§  CMS: OM Sarawak signs deal with Hanwa
§  Evergreen: US$50m claim exaggerated
§  Perdana Petroleum: IPIC keen on Petra Energy stake
§  Property: Khazanah plans S$7bn project in Singapore
§  Property: Serious home buyers undeterred
§  IPO: Astro to be re-listed?

Global news
§  US: Consumer sentiment in climbs to highest level in year
§  US: Inventories, weak business spending curb 1Q2012 growth
§  US: Government revises up February oil demand
§  China: Government says Q2 trade growth to stabilize at "low level"


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Friday, April 27, 2012

Market Roundup | 27 April 2012

MORNING CALL                                       27 April 2012
FLOWS;
BUYS:      MRCB, TM, UOADev
SELLS:      BAB, Genting, Latexx
Technical Stock Alert;
1) DRBHICOM (RM2.36) -   trading down to its SMA 200 day levels of RM2.30 after reaching a year high of RM3.26. To date it has been successful in increasing its stake in Proton to 98.66% after announcing a MGO. Re rating catalyst could come from the rationalization process of Proton which could include a tie up with foreign car makers such as Mitsubishi, VW, GM to increase utilization of Proton's Tg Malim plant and sale of Lotus which has been a sapping the group's cashflow. Up side target RM2.68, Trading Buy.
(RL/DN)

2) GENTING (RM10.36) -  trading at the low end of its defined range for the past six months between the levels of RM10.24 - RM11.26. The wide divergence in MACD and RSI also down to its low end of 27 indicate a possibility of a reversal in fortunes soon. Remains a cheaper entry for exposure to its 49.1% holding in Genting Malaysia and 51.7% in Genting Singapore. Trading buy with a target of RM10.80-RM11.20.

News Bits | 27 April 2012


Highlights of the day
§  Genting Plantations (Company Update): FFB production set for steady growth (Downgrade to HOLD, TP: RM8.78) [download report]
We expect Genting Plantations’ (GenP) FFB production to grow by 8% and 13% in FY12 and FY13 based on their historical plantings, and we forecast GenP to plant some 12,000ha annually. This is possible as we estimate GenP’s unplanted land to be 75,000ha, predominantly in Indonesia. We upgrade our TP to RM8.78 implying 14.5x PE, 1.8x PB and 1.4% net dividend yield, but we downgrade our recommendation from Trading Buy to HOLD.

Other reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  CIMB: CIMB Niaga’s 1Q profit jumps 29%
§  Bumi Armada: Ananda pares down stake
§  IPO: Felda Global offers 2.2bn IPO shares
§  RHBCap-OSK: Merger believed to have received Bank Negara approval
§  Nestle: Sizable capex in Nestle’s pipeline
§  MAHB: KLIA passenger traffic hit by MAS, AirAsia route cuts
§  DRB-Hicom: Gets 98.6% of Proton
§  JT International: Battles illicit cigarette trade
§  Perdana Petroleum: Calls tender for Petra Energy
§  Ramunia: Tweaks utilisation of rights proceeds
§  TA Global: Buys Phuket resort for RM277m
§  Oil & Gas: Big spin-offs from Pengerang terminal project
§  Aviation: AirAsia dismisses ‘not using KLIA2’ talks

Global news
§  US: Labour market cools
§  US: Pending sales of existing homes increased 4.1% in March
§  Europe: Spain’s ratings cut by S&P on deficit
§  Europe: Eurozone economic confidence drops
§  China: Data show impact of global woes
§  Singapore: Production declines as electronics, drugs output drop


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Market Roundup | 27 April 2012

FBM30 1579.69     +0.34points (+0.02%)   Volume 1,455mil    Value       1,461.4mil      
1) KLCI ended mixed, paring its early morning gains before finding some support to rebound from its low of 1577.71 (-1.64pts) as local market continued to buck the regionals which rose after Federal Reserve's comment that it will keep its very accommodative monetary policies to maintain growth. Property-0.71% fell the most on expected slowdown in the sector as big names UEMLAND-2%, SPSETIA-2%, SUNWAY-3% paced the losers. Broader market stayed negative with losers outpacing advancers 453:253. Futures closed 1574.5 (5 points discount). 
2) Heavyweights: DIGI+2.53% RM4.06, AIRASIA+2.11% RM3.38, ARMADA+0.48% RM4.22, GENTING-0.96% RM10.36, PBBANK-0.44% RM13.66, YTL-1.2% RM1.64, PETGAS-0.47% RM16.86
3) DBT: YINSON 6.2mil @ RM1.70 (3.3% PUC, 4.5% discount), CBWORKS 6mil @  RM0.10 (33% discount), MTOUCHE 3.5mil @ RM0.50 (6.5% discount)
4) Situationals:
SEG-4.97% RM1.72: Share price fell after Navis Capital Partners Ltd made unconditional cash offer to privatize SEG international Bhd (SEG). The private equity firm made an unconditional offer through its investment firm Pinnacle Heritage Solutions Sdn Bhd at RM1.714 per share and RM1.214 per warrant. The general offer is made together with SEGI's MD Datuk Seri Clement Hii where combined holding is 57.62%.  
5) MAHB
1Q Mar 2012  Tover +6.5% RM657.7m    Net +6.9% RM102.7m   EPS 9.2sen
10% below cons(f) RM455m Included in the airport operations' revenue was construction revenue recognised in relation to the construction of klia2 and expansion of Penang International Airport of RM146.6 million, 9.7% lower than RM162.4 million recognised in the same period in the previous year. The improvement in revenue for the current quarter for airport ops was mainly contributed by a positive growth of 18.1% or RM37.1 million from aeronautical revenue which was mostly derived from passenger service charges and landing charges driven by higher passenger and aircraft numbers and the implementation of new rates. However, the increase in revenue from passenger service charges was negated by lower MARCS PSC as the Group is no longer entitled to claim for MARCS PSC. Passenger movements for the current quarter under review were 6.5% higher than the corresponding period last year, in which the international and domestic passenger movements increased by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively. Passenger movements at KLIA-LCCT and KLIA- Main Terminal were higher by 11.6% (international: +15.1%, domestic: +9.6%) and 2.6% (international:+4.5%, domestic: -4.2%) respectively. Included in PBT was RM6.6 million profit from construction of klia2 and Penang International Airport recognised upon adoption of IC12: Service Concession Arrangement effective in previous year (31 March 2011: RM 7.3 million). Excluding the construction profit, PBT increased by 10% or RM13.4 million. The favourable PBT variance was attributed to the positive growth in revenue and lower share of associate losses. 
Share of associate losses was lower primarily due to higher profit recorded by GMR Male International Airports ("GMIA") and lower loss from Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport . Total cost increased by 15.6% or RM44.2 million due to the increase in staff cost and utilities.
Higher staff costs are mainly due to annual increments, additional recruitment and the impact of adjustments arising from the finalisation of Non-Executive - 6th Collective Agreement ("CA6") in October 2011.
Increase in utilities was mainly attributable to higher passenger movements.
The scheduled opening of KLIA 2 on April 2013 will initially impact bottom line with increase cost but also provide future top line growth in line with increased tourist arrivals without the complications that airlines face dealing with fluctuating oil prices.
6) Market - Current trading conditions to continue. Stocks sold down to attractive levels for a trading buy on expected technical bounce include GENTING, IJM, SUNWAY, BSTEAD

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Morning Call | 26 April 2012

MORNING CALL                                       26 April 2012

FLOWS;

BUYS:     Maxis, Mudajaya, PBBank-01

SELLS:     UMW, SapCres, PChem

Technical Stock Alert;
1) PERISAI (RM0.895) -   price has recovered after earlier rumours of another cash call.  Possible a reversed head & shoulder pattern if it clears the RM0.92 level. 0.14 sen up side target to RM1.06 (Trading buy). 

2) TIMECOM (RM0.715) -   MACD exhibiting signs of cutting upwards with RSI recovering from a low of 37 to 57 currently. Its price is retesting the SMA 50 levels of RM0.725 and could immediately revisit the double top target of RM0.775. Its remaining 3.5% in DIGI is worth RM1bn vs existing market cap of RM1.8bn and completion in the 2H of the new companies which will give it a regional presence with earnings enhancement. Trading Buy

News bits | 26 April 2012


Highlights of the day
§  Parkson Holdings (Company Update): Guardian of departmental stores (Downgrade to HOLD, TP: RM5.28) [download report]
Parkson Holdings is the guardian of departmental stores in the emerging markets via stakes in both Parkson Retail Asia and Parkson Retail Group.  In tandem with the lower-than-expected economic growth in China, Malaysia and Indonesia, we forecast lower y-o-y same-store-sales (SSS) growth.  Based on our earnings forecast, the stock is trading at 14.5x FY12 and 13.1x FY13 EPS which appears fully-valued compared to an average net profit growth of 12% pa over the next two years. Downgrade to Hold with TP RM5.28 based on sum-of-parts implying 14.6x FY12 PER.

§  Building Materials (Sector Update): Riding on the construction boom (Maintain OVERWEIGHT) [download report]
The local building materials sector, particularly steel and cement, is expected to undergo an upward re-rating due to the huge multiplier effect from the Malaysian construction industry, which is gaining traction on the back of the accelerated implementation of various infrastructure and property projects, both from the public and private sector. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Other reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  DiGi.Com: 1Q net profit dips 3.2% y-o-y to RM320.6m
§  SP Setia: Plans rail hub in KL Eco City
§  Mudajaya: Clarifies on coal worries
§  TH Plantation: Eyes 20,000ha land in Sarawak, East Kalimantan
§  SEG International: Navis makes cash offer for Segi with Hii
§  KUB: Has no plans to sell A&W
§  Ramunia: May bag fabrication contract
§  Scomi Engineering: Eyes RM2.5bn job in Brazil
§  Ingress: Honda’s RM27m contract for Ingress
§  IPO: Felda to go ahead with IPO without cooperative
§  Property: Iskandar Investment in tie-up

Global news
§  US: Bernanke says Fed may name officials making rate forecasts
§  US: Fed officials reduce 2012 unemployment forecast to 7.8-8.0%
§  US: Drop in durables orders masks investment gain
§  Europe: Draghi softens tone on inflation, calls for growth compact
§  Europe: UK succumbs to first double-dip recession since 1970s
§  India: Investment grade rating at risk as S&P cuts outlook
§  South Korea: 1Q GDP 0.9% q-o-q, 2.8% y-o-y
§  Global: Global food prices on the rise


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