Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Morning Call | 31 July 2012


MORNING CALL                                       31 JULY 2012

FLOWS;

BUYS: YTL, MRCB, Axiata

SELLS: Maybank, DRBHcm, AMMB

Technical Stock Alert;
PARKSON (RM4.76) - stock has underperformed this year, -15% YTD on the back of weaker economic conditions. It represents a cheaper entry to its two other listed subsidiaries, 67.6% Parkson Retail Asia and 51.5% Parkson Retail Group, whose combined value is approx RM5742m vs current market cap of RM5196m. They would be an obvious beneficiary from the expected quantitative easing from Western Central Banks with exposure to the fast growing economies of China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Technically it looks to be forming a head and shoulder pattern, with an immediate breach of RM4.80, potentially reaping an upside of around RM5.20. MACD is also hooking up. BUY
(DN/AL)

Genting (9.26) - buy Genting coz  risk-on trades are back in vogue due to expectations of QE3, ECB/EU determination to bring borrowing costs down and talks of China's injection of further stimulus. This is especially so with global funds generally being under-weighted in equities. Evidence can be seen from regional gaming stocks like Sands China, Wynn Macao, Galaxy & Melco, have already rebounded strongly the last 2 trading days, putting on gains of 12-14%, despite the recent negative sell-side reports due to slowing Macao gaming growth & speculation of restriction on visas for Chinese tourists to Macao.

Genting S'pore, a 52% sub, also rebounded 8% yesterday. Genting, a major laggard this year (down 16% ytd vs KLCI +7%) and trading at FY12/13 PER of 10.9x, coupled with being a foreign favourite whenever they allocate funds to M'sia, is a compelling buy in the current environment.
(PT)

News Bits | 31 July 2012


Reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Malaysian news
§  Maybank: BII sees 61% rise in earnings
§  Plantation: Refiners upset over move to boost tax-free CPO exports
§  Maybank: Inks Legoland deal
§  IHH: Gets green light to delist Turkey unit
§  AirAsia: Jakarta move a business decision, said Rafidah
§  Lafarge Malayan Cement: Confirms cement price hike
§  TSH Resources: Extends offer for Pontian
§  BRDB: To get takeover offer from Ambang Sehati
§  Gabungan AQRS: Gets LoA for RM141m contract
§  Economy: GST unlikely to be in 2013 Budget
§  Economy: PM launches RM26bn financial district
§  Construction: Joint study on M'sia-S'pore Rapid Transit System
§  Property: Bidding process for RRI land to start by year-end
§  Utility: Selangor plans RM1bn to address water woes

Global news
§  Europe: Euro-area economic confidence drops more than forecast
§  Japan: Industrial output falls unexpectedly
§  South Korea: Industrial output falls as confidence sinks


Our on-line trading portal at www.ecmmoney.com

Market Roundup | 30 July 2012

FBM30  1632.35  +7.41 pts (0.46%)         Volume 1.22b    Value RM1.28b 
1) The KLSE opened firmer, as support grew among European leaders to tackle the debt crisis & ensure the survival of the monetary union. However gains were short-lived as the market succumbed to selling pressure, trading lower & sideways for most of the day before late buying in selective counters ( PETGAS+7.2%) pushed index up to close with a gain of 7.4 pts. Market volume mainly dominated by 3rd liners, PATIMAS +18%, BIOSIS+41%, THHEAVY+8%. The broader market was positive, with gainers leading losers 426:305. Futures closed 1628.5 pts ( 3.85 pts disc).

2) Heavyweights: PETGAS+7.2% RM19.30, SKPETRO+2.5% RM2.44, MRCB+3.5% RM1.79, BOUSTEAD+1.5% RM5.53, BAT-2.6% RM60.36, MISC-1.3% RM4.53, MAXIS-1.3% RM6.32, GAMUDA-1.1% RM3.48.

3) DBT: BIOSIS 19.1m @ RM0.275 (43% disc to close), DUTALAND-LA 13m @ RM0.38 (8% disc), ECOFIRS 3m @ RM0.165.
 
4) Situationals:

MRCB+3.5%: after it was reported that MRCB is considering to acquire a private company, Nusa Gapurna Development SB, to leverage on the it's landbanks worth up to RM1.3b. Gapurna is managed by Datuk Mohd Salim Fateh Din. Based on the report, the price tag was reported at the range of RM11-13b, which is mainly the total GDV of Gapurna's landbanks located in PJ & other Klang Valley areas of approximately 60 acres. The acquisition is said to involve a share swap exercise between EPF & Gapurna, which will result in Gapurna holding about 20% of MRCB.

MPHB+2.3%: after a weekly publication said that both the management of MPHB and it's bankers have yet to firm up the price for the listing of it's non gaming assets. It's said that MPHB will submit the draft prospectus for the Newco listing to SC by the end of next month. To recap, the non gaming assets were earlier valued around RM1.4b, while for the de-coupling exercise, the existing shareholders were expected to be rewarded with a 56s one off special dividend.

5) KJOO
Announced that an agreement had been signed in Vietnam on 27 July 2012 between KJCF and Nihon Canpack Co. Ltd. of Japan to dispose and transfer its 60% shareholding in Kian Joo Canpack (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. to NCP Japan for a cash consideration sum of USD9.30 million. KJCPV is involved in the contract packing of coffee, tea and fruit juices in Vietnam Binh Duong Province whereby NCP Japan is the joint venture partner that holds a 40% shareholding in KJCPV.

The above disposal is expected to be completed within one month from the signing of the said agreement after the issuance of the new Investment Certificate to the new owner, NCP Japan. Meanwhile, KJCF will continue to supply cans to KJCPV which will be renamed Nihon Canpack Vietnam Co. Ltd., and maintain its cooperation as before.


Comments : this is an unexpected development as KJCPV had initially been seen to be its vehicle to grow in the expanding market in Vietnam catering for the MNC exports.

6) Market - KLCI to move in line with global rebound on expectations of world central banks acting soon to avert a debt crisis in Europe and avoid further global slowdown. Trading Buy IJM. 

Morning Call | 30 July 2012


MORNING CALL                                       30 JULY 2012



FLOWS;



BUYS: Digi, FGV, TNB



SELLS: CIMB, AMMB, DRBHcm,



Technical Stock Alert;



ARMADA (RM3.86) -  the stock drifted down to its lower end of its trading range after failing to secure any major FPSO contracts so far.

The company has guided for 1-2 FPSO contact wins per year with 4-5 FPSO tenders out. This division forms the core of its business accounting for more than 2/3 of its order book. We remain optimistic that the lack of news flow is more of a delay in the overall sector in the awarding of contracts. Current levels are around year lows of RM3.82 and also below recent April's placement of 293m shares @ RM3.95 to institutional investors and represent a good accumulation level for eventual rerating when contracts are awarded. RSI has drifted to below 30 and MACD flat, downside looks limited. Accumulate.



BURSA (RM6.49)- buy as expect 2H's earnings to b stronger underpinned by the recent listing of 2 large cap IPO (IHH & Felda) and this yr's record no of structured warrants listed vs last yr is evident of a further boost to their bottomline. Future listings ie Astro (3Q12) and Malakoff

(1Q13) and more products fr Bursa ie cross border trading via Asean Trading Link will continue to drive the earnings going fwd. Current yield is healthy at 4%.  Its net cash position also enables them to distribute more dividends.

Buy

(LJL)

News Bits | 30 July 2012


Highlights of the day
§  DRB-Hicom Bhd (Initiating Coverage): Unlocking synergies (BUY, TP: RM3.45) [download report]
We initiate coverage on DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRBH), recommending a Buy with target price of RM3.45. We see strong growth potential in its automotive division mainly from its collaboration with Volkswagen and the inclusion of Proton Holdings under its large stable of companies. Although contribution from the services and property, asset and construction (PAC) segments are relatively smaller, these businesses will provide the Group with stable recurring income.

Other reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  RHB Capital: Plans to boost customer base
§  MAHB: Airport charges won’t be any more taxing

§  MRCB: In line for RM1bn MRT job

§  Crescendo: To launch Johor township with GDV of RM3bn
§  CMS: CMS Cement says it will not raise price
§  KYM: Steel mill project needs US$5bn funding
§  Oil & Gas: Petronas raises Progress Energy offer after rival bid
§  Building Materials: MBAM urges Government to check on possibility of higher cement prices
§  Construction: Firms keen on high-speed rail job must bid via tender exercise
§  Construction: Ipoh-Padang Besar EDTP about 85% complete
§  Logistics: ‘Privatisation vital for long-term survival of Penang Port
§  Steel: M&As can help steel makers better tap strong demand in Asean
§  Plantation: Players positive on CPO prices

Global news
§  US: Growth slows as consumers restrain spending
§  US: Consumer sentiment gauge falls to lowest this year
§  China: Pending sales of homes unexpectedly fell 1.4% in June
§  South Korea: Manufacturer confidence drops to 3-year low on Europe woes

Our on-line trading portal at www.ecmmoney.com

Market Roundup | 27 July 2012

FBM30 1624.94   +1.03 points (+0.06%)    Volume 978.7mil     Value     1,710mil      

1) KLCI surged and reached a high of 1630.57 (+6.66pts) in early trading following comments by ECB president Mario Draghi that ECB will do whatever was necessary to protect the Eurozone from collapse, raising expectations it will provide solution to tackle the escalating borrowing cost. Index however drifted lower and was in negative territory by midday before mark ups at auction of BAT, PETDAG and GENTING ensured market close positive. Market breadth was positive with gainers edging losers 396:365. Futures closed 1623.5pts (1.5points discount). 

2) Heavyweights: TM-1.39% RM5.66, MAXIS-2.14% RM6.40, PPB-1.30% RM15.20, ARMADA-2.53% RM3.86, BAT+4.35% RM61.94, AXIATA+0.69% RM5.80, GENTING+0.99% RM9.20, IOICORP+0.38% RM5.30

3) DBT: MAXIS 375mil @ RM6.28 (5% PUC, 1.9% discount, Share sale by Maxis Communication Bhd), SUNWAY 10mil @ RM2.28, FFHB 4.3mil @ RM0.16 (5.2% PUC)

4) Situationals:
INTEGRA+6.57% RM1.46: Share price rose ahead of midday announcement where Lekir Bulk Terminal Sdn Bhd (LBT), a subsidiary of Integrax has entered into a new jetty terminal usage agreement (JTUA - M4) with TNB Janamanjung Sdn Bhd for the provision of handling services by LBT for the import of coal for the new 1,010MW coal fired power plant located at Pulau Lekir 1, Telok Rubiah, District of Manjung in Perak for an initial period which will expire on 30 March 2040. The M4 power plant is expected to commence on 31 Mar 2015.

5) INTEGRAX / TENAGA 
Tenaga Nasional Berhad  announced that TNB Janamanjung Sdn. Bhd., signed a new jetty terminal usage agreement with Lekir Bulk Terminal Sdn. Bhd. ("LBT"), a subsidiary of Integrax Berhad in relation to the new 1 X 1010 MW Manjung Coal-Fired Power Plant, which is expected to be completed and fully commissioned by March 2015.

The Agreement is for LBT to procure and appoint a reputable contractor to undertake the design, engineering, procurement and construction of an approximately 80-tonne grab bucket unloader, feeder conveyors and its associated equipment and structures and to provide import handling and delivery services of the coal for the New Power Plant. With the signing of the Agreement, LBT is expected to deliver approximately 3,000,000 metric tonne of coal per annum to the New Power Plant.

The obligation of LBT for the above services shall commence on 1 February 2014 and the Agreement shall expire on the 25th anniversary of the commercial operation date of the New Power Plant which is scheduled on 31 March 2015.

+ve and more significant to Integrax as this would boost LBT's throughput by 50% from 6m tonnes currently. The company has also expressed its desire to resume talks with Brazilian company Vale to help develop Lumut Port. HOLD

6) Market - Current rotation into mid caps could see possible renewed interest into POS Malaysia which is reorganizing  its business, currently trading at only 10x PE and 6% yield, we rate this stock a BUY.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Morning Call | 27 July 2012

MORNING CALL                                       27 JULY 2012

FLOWS;

BUYS: UEMLand, Sime, KEuro

SELLS: MAS, Genting, Maybank

Technical Stock Alert;

GENT MSIA (RM3.30) - Unjustifiably sold down recently in tandem with its parent company Genting Bhd on fears of slowing prospects in Singapore and regulatory intervention. Bulk of their earnings continues to be derived from its Malaysian Casino operations which are helping to finance its expansion into UK and more recently US. They also have a stake in Genting HK which controls its casino in the Philippines. Its stock price after touching a recent high of  RM3.72, has tumbled 11% to the lowest levels since Oct 2011. RSI is at an extreme oversold level of 25 and widening MACD divergence showing signs or a reversal soon. BUY with a technical rebound target back to RM3.62.


Gamuda (RM3.45)-stk dropped another 3% yesterday despite being the underperforming big cap construction name recently on worries of impending GE13 which may jeopardize contract awards to co. This selldown is a good opportunity to buy on weakness as it nears its recent low and next support lvl of RM2.38. Sitting on OB of RM5.5bn (RM4.4bn from recently awarded MRT tunneling proj) with another RM8bn contract expected from Gemas-JB double tracking proj and more MRT awards in offing, trades at lower end of PER band of 13x v leader IJM's 17x-trading buy. 
(LJN)

News Bits | 27 July 2012


Highlights of the day
§  Parkson Holdings (Quick Bits): Knocking on Sri Lanka's door (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM4.85) [download report]
In an announcement to the Singapore Stock Exchange yesterday, Parkson Retail Asia Ltd (PRA), Parkson Holdings’ 67.6%-owned subsidiary, announced that it had entered a sale and purchase agreement with Odel PLC, a Sri Lanka based lifestyle fashion retailer listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange, to acquire a 41.8% stake in the latter for SGD13.6m. We believe that PRA’s move is a prelude to penetrating the South Asia retail market, particularly India with strong domestic consumption akin to China, which currently accounts for c.87% of Parkson Holdings’ group EBIT. Maintain HOLD with sum-of-parts target price at RM4.85.

Other reports
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  SapuraKencana: Gets RM300m contracts
§  Maxis: MCB raises RM2.4bn via placement of Maxis shares
§  AirAsia: To buy Indonesia’s Batavia Air
§  Malaysia Airports: KLIA2 cost expected to remain at RM4bn
§  Integrax: Poised to seal 25-year TNB coal contract
§  TSR: RM330m MRT jobs
§  Menang: To build RM101m UiTM facility
§  Construction: High-speed rail talks with Singapore to start soon
§  Economy: Malaysia's trade exposure to 5 troubled European countries at 1.5%
§  Media: Marginal rise in ad spend
§  Port: Chambers to bid for Penang Port
§  Rubber Glove: Glovemakers brace for higher wages and gas prices
§  Rubber Glove: Up to 15% growth in demand seen

Global news
§  US: Orders signal slowdown in business spending
§  US: Jobless claims decrease, extending July volatility
§  US: Pending sales of homes unexpectedly fell 1.4% in June
§  Europe: Region lending contracted for a second month in June
§  Europe: Greek budget talks stumble
§  South Korea: Current-account surplus widens to record on import decline
§  Singapore: Industrial output rose in June on pharmaceuticals
§  Vietnam: Surplus in trade balance in July
§  Philippines: Central bank cuts interest rate to a record low

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