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FLOWS
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Friday, 26 July, 2013
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BUY
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ARMADA, YTL
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SELL
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CIMB MAYBANK
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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GENP(2291)
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26/7/2013
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RM10.00
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TAKE PROFIT
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-
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Stock has outperformed in the past month with a price gain of 13%,
whereas its other Malaysian peers have been flat, while the Singaporean &
Indonesian listed plantation companies are generally trading lower than a
month ago. This divergence is also seen against CPO prices which have dropped
about 10% over the past month. The apparent outperformance is due to brokers
raising their value of Genp’s plantation land in Johor driven by the higher
demands for commercial and industrial land there. However, the conversion of
plantation land is a long-term process and the decision is normally made towards
the end of the oil palm fruitful years, which is not in the near term, and
even then there is the conversion of land application procedures which may be
a drawn out process. Hence, the current price outperformance is an
opportunity to take profit. In addition, Genp is trading at PER of 23.4x
which is a premium to its counterparts and significantly higher than its
5-year average PER of 16.9x. Trading at such lofty valuations, there is no
room for any surprises during results reporting season, hence Genp is
susceptible to a sell off. This is a strong possibility as CPO is trading
trading at 3-year low, closing at RM2,170/metric ton, and facing downward
pressure from other competing substitute oilseeds like soybean and canola
which are also breaking down due to the double whammy of increasing supplies
& slowing demand. The analysts community has a mean forecast of
RM2,500/mt built into their earnings model while ytd average CPO price is
RM2,380/mt, hence it is likely that Genp will not meet its consensus earnings
and analysts having to revise down their forecasts & price targets.
Bursa’s filings have also reported that a substantial shareholder, the
civil service pension fund, has been a keen seller for the stock recently,
likely capping the price in the short-term. Take profit and buy back at
RM9.00 (21x PER).
(PT)
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UZMA(7250)
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26/7/2013
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RM4.00
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TAKE PROFIT
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-
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Stock spiked up sharply from RM3.40 to Rm4.00
in a week on the back of bullish sentiments on small cap oil & gas
counters, resulting in an overbought position for Uzma with a new high of
RM4.09 but a clear negative divergence against its technical indicators which
are quite a distance from their recent highs. Volume has also thinned
signicantly indicating the tapering of buying momentum. Investors should take
profit now before the expected pullback. Uzma has gained 168% ytd versus the
KLCI’s 7% and is trading at the high end of the small cap o&g stocks PER
band of 15x, higher than the average PER of mid cap o&g stocks of 13.7x.
It is also trading at p/bk of 4.9x compared to its 5-year average of 2.6x. In
addition, the Company’s filings to
(PT)
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Calls for JULY week 3 / week
4
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STOCK
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Initiation Dates
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Initiation price
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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LAST PRICE
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% Change since Initiated
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MAYBULK (5077)
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19/7/2013
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RM1.85
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BUY
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RM2.30
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RM1.82
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-1.7%
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DAYA(0091)
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19/7/2013
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RM0.255
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BUY
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RM0.295
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RM0.265
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+3.9%
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THHEAVY(7206)
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22/7/2013
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RM0.945
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Trading SELL
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RM0.85
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RM0.920
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-2.7%
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SAM(9822)
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22/7/2013
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RM2.45
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BUY
on weakness
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RM3.00
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RM2.51
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+2.4%
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BRAHIMS (9474)
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23/7/2013
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RM1.00
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Trading BUY
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RM1.20
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RM1.15
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+15.0%
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WTK(4243)
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23/7/2013
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RM1.24
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BUY
on weakness
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RM1.55
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RM1.22
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-1.7%
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PUNCAK (6807)
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24/7/2013
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RM2.48
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BUY
on weakness
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RM3.50
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RM2.51
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+1.2%
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DRBHCOM (1619)
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24/7/2013
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RM2.70
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BUY
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RM3.30
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RM2.69
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-0.3%
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AMBANK (1015)
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25/7/2013
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RM8.02
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SELL
into strength
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RM7.40
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RM7.98
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-0.5%
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COASTAL (5071)
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25/7/2013
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RM2.53
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BUY
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RM3.36
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RM2.74
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+8.3%
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We’ve added an extra feature (first column from right) to indicate our
recommendation for our call.
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HOLD
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CONT SELL
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SELL/ TAKE PROFIT
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CONT BUY
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STRONG BUY
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