FLOWS
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Tuesday, 8 October, 2013
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BUY
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PCHEM, GASMSIA, GAMUDA
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SELL
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GENTING, TENAGA, CIMB
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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CMSB (2852)
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8/10/2013
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RM5.43
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Take Profit
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RM4.60
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Since our buy call on
17/9/13, CMS has done very well with a gain of >18% versus a generally
flat market (KLCI +0.1% & FBMEMAS +0.5%). CMS is approaching its
RM5.50-5.60 resistance when it has failed to breach this wall in the past 3
consecutive attempts and those were in investment environments that were more
favourable for Malaysian & emerging market stocks. Hence, we are making a
call to fade this rally & take profit especially into strength. On a
historical basis, the fundamentals also look stretched with trailing &
forward PER of 13.7x & 10.9x, and p/bk of 1.18x versus 5-year average
trailing PER of 8.6x & p/bk of 0.59x. Take profit and buy back at RM4.60.
(PT)
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KLK (2445)
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8/10/2013
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RM22.90
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Take Profit
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RM21.00
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Stock trades at premium valuation compared to
its peers in listed Malaysia, Singapore & Indonesia. KLK trades at 2
years forward PER of 26.5x & 21.1x compared to Malaysian-listed planters
of 22.3x & 17.0x, Singapore-listed 17.1x & 13.0x and Indonesia-listed
21.8x & 12.5x. It is also pricey on a p/bk valuation of 3.41 vs
Malaysian-listed 1.99x, Singapore –listed 1.11x and Indonesian-listed 1.76x.
The forthcoming quarter results i.e. 4Q13 ended September’13 & its
cumulative FY9/13 results have very difficult comparisons as the benchmark
average 4Q12 CPO price is 21% higher than the current 4Q13 average CPO price,
and FY12 average CPO price is 25% higher than the 9-months ytd actual CPO
price realised by KLK. Hence 4Q13 reporting season will be challenging and
likely to disappoint. Sentiment on plantation stocks will also be dampened by
lower CPO prices from the current cyclical peak production quarter. The
prevailing price is very close to ytd high of RM23.10 with the macd turning
negative with the impending dead cross. The consensus 12-month target price
for KLK is only at RM20.37. Take profit and buy back at RM21.00.
(PT)
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Calls for OCT Week 1/ Week 2
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STOCK
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Initiation Dates
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Initiation price
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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LAST PRICE
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% Change
since Initiated
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BAT (4162)
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1/10/2013
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RM64.20
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Take Profit
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RM59.70
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RM63.00
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-1.9%
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DIALOG (7277)
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1/10/2013
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RM2.54
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ACCUMULATE
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RM2.90
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RM2.67
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+5.1%
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LBS (5789)
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2/10/2013
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RM1.77
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BUY on weakness
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RM2.20
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RM1.86
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+5.0%
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PERISAI (0047)
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2/10/2013
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RM1.30
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.66
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RM1.28
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-1.6%
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MAYBULK (5077)
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3/10/2013
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RM1.83
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SELL
into strength
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RM1.55
- RM1.65
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RM1.83
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+0.0%
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GADANG (9261)
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3/10/2013
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RM0.825
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BUY on weakness
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RM1.30
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RM0.81
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0.0%
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E&O (3417)
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4/10/2013
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RM2.01
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ACCUMULATE
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RM2.30
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RM2.01
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0.0%
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INARI (0166)
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4/10/2013
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RM1.11
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Take Profit
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<RM1.00
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RM1.08
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-2.8%
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CIMB (1023)
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7/10/2013
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RM7.44
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Trading BUY
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RM8.40
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RM7.47
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+0.4%
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PENERGY (5133)
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7/10/2013
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RM2.06
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BUY
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RM2.50
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RM2.06
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0.0%
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HOLD
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CONT SELL
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SELL/ TAKE PROFIT
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CONT BUY
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STRONG BUY
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