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FLOWS
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Monday, 7 April 2014
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BUY
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SKPETRO,
TENAGA, PBBANK
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SELL
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MISC, HLBANK, GAMUDA
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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AIRASIA (5099)
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7/4/2014
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RM2.39
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BUY
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RM2.77
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Stock has corrected 6% in one week and is now near its
support level at RM2.37/35 level. This is despite improving fundamentals from
lower jet fuel cost which has retraced >6% in 2 months from
USD125.10/bbl to USD118.50/bbl currently. MYR, Indonesian rupiah &
the Thai baht have also strengthen by 2.6%, 7.8% & 1.9%
respectively versus the USD over the same period. These will greatly
assist to reduce the costs of AirAsia & its associates when yields are
sticky on the upside. Analysts have estimated that a 10sen strengthening in
the MYR vs USD will improve the bottomline by 7%. AirAsia is also
likely to gain market share at the expanse of MAS in view of
the MH370 mishap. AirAsia trades at decent valuation with forward PER of
9.3x & 7.9x for FY14 & FY15 respectively. The current weakness is an opportunity to accumulate the stock.
(LJN/PT)
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TENAGA (9261)
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7/4/2014
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RM11.34
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ACCUMULATE
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RM12.30
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Following a downgrade report by a foreign house, the stock
has retraced close to 6% in 3 days with technical indicators oversold - RSI
29% & wide divergence on the macd. Tenaga managed to hold above its
longer-term support of RM7.23 (SMA100) & critical 76.4% retracement of
RM7.22 which indicates a potential bottom and support surfacing from
long-term funds. Potential positives for Tenaga are fuel costs are expected
to drop significantly now that the major maintenance exercise has been
completed for the Tanjong Bin coal-fired power plants as using coal as fuel
is significantly cheaper than the current market LNG prices for gas volume
supplied by Petronas exceeding 1,000mmsscfd. In addition, Tenaga will benefit
from the continued depressed price of coal from global oversupply and
countries adopting clean energy initiatives to reduce pollution. The next
review for the fuel-cost-pass-through tariff is in June and will heighten
interest & serve as a rerating catalyst for the stock. Tenaga’s valuation
at PER 11.9x & 11.0x for FY8/15 & FY8/16 is attractive for a core big
cap. Accumulate
(LJN/PT)
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Calls for MARCH Week 4 / APRIL Week 1 2014
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STOCK
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Initiation
Dates
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Initiation
price
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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LAST PRICE
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% Change
since Initiated
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PARAMON (1724)
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31/3/2014
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RM1.67
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BUY
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RM2.00
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RM1.69
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+1.1%
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SCOMI (7158)
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31/3/2014
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RM0.435
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ACCUMULATE
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RM0.645
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RM0.455
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+4.5%
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DIGI (6947)
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1/4/2014
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RM5.39
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Take profit
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-
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RM5.23
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-3.0%
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MMCCORP (2194)
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1/4/2014
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RM2.82
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ACCUMULATE
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RM3.20
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RM2.83
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+0.3%
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THHEAVY (7206)
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2/4/2014
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RM0.92
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Trading BUY
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RM1.05
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RM0.915
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-0.6%
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GENM (4715)
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2/4/2014
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RM4.16
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ACCUMULATE
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RM4.60
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RM4.19
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+0.7%
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BARAKAH (7251)
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3/4/2014
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RM1.56
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Trading BUY
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RM2.20
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RM1.54
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-1.3%
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TAANN (5012)
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3/4/2014
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RM4.20
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ACCUMULATE
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RM4.80
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RM4.18
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-0.5%
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PANTECH (5125)
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4/4/2014
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RM0.895
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BUY
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RM1.26
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RM0.975
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+8.9%
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GADANG (9261)
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4/4/2014
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RM1.21
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.80
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RM1.22
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+0.8%
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HOLD
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CONT SELL
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SELL/ TAKE PROFIT
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CONT BUY
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STRONG BUY
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