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FLOWS
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Tuesday, 14 October, 2014
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BUY
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SKPETRO, TENAGA, TM
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SELL
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DIGI, UEMS, FGV
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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MSM (5202)
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14/10/2014
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RM4.92
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Take Profit
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-
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MSM has outperformed the broad market with a
gain of 3.4% versus the KLCI Index which is down 3.7% ytd. We are
advocating to take profit on MSM and switch to other beaten-down stocks that
would provide the opportunity to outperform by the year end/January
window. While MSM valuations are about its historical average, it faces unexciting
prospects. These are as follows: 1) lower sales volume from increased
domestic sugar price as a result of lower subsidies; 2) competition from
cheaper import of sugar especially from Thailand; 3) for the next 2 quarters,
profit margin will continue to be impacted by high raw sugar cost for part of
its supply under the long-term contract at USD0.26/lb versus current
market prices of around usd0.17/lb; and 4) the recent strength of USD versus
MYR will also hit MSM's margin. Technically, its MACD is on the verge of
cutting down. Take profit
(PT)
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UMWOG(5243)
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14/10/2014
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RM3.10
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ACCUMULATE
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RM3.60
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Share price plunged > 20% in about 2 weeks and is very
oversold with RSI of 9.9%. Its price has retraced to the levels of its first
week of trading post its IPO in November'13 when UMWOG was operating 3
jack-up rigs & 1 semi-sub compared to 5 jack-up rigs & 1
semi-sub currently, and an additional 2 jack-up rigs on schedule for
deployment in January'15 & September'15. Valuation has dropped from a
premium historical PER of 33.3x to a FY15 PER 15.9x which is comparable
to the broad market but with a vastly superior eps CAGR of 33% for the
FY14-16. With local GLCs owning substantial stakes in the company, UMWOG is a
prime candidate for any window-dressing activities. Accumulate
(PT)
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Calls for SEPT OCT WEEK 1 /
WEEK 2 2014
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STOCK
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Initiation
Dates
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Initiation
price
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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LAST PRICE
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% Change
since Initiated
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MASTEEL (5098)
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7/10/2014
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RM1.03
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.21
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RM0.995
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-3.4%
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MBSB (1171)
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7/10/2014
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RM2.42
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TRIM
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-
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RM2.65
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+9.5%
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MRCB(1651)
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8/10/2014
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RM1.59
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ACCUMULATE
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RM2.00
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RM1.50
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-5.7%
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HARTA(5168)
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8/10/2014
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RM7.02
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TRIM
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-
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RM6.83
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-2.8%
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YINSON (7293)
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9/10/2014
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RM2.89
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BUY
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RM3.30
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RM2.64
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-8.7%
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GLOMAC (5020)
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9/10/2014
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RM1.10
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TRIM
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-
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RM1.09
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-1.0%
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MEDIAC(5090)
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10/10/2014
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RM0.885
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ACCUMULATE
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RM0.94
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RM0.855
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-3.4%
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BJTOTO(1562)
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10/10/2014
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RM3.59
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Defensive BUY
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-
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RM3.57
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-0.5%
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OLDTOWN(5201)
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13/10/2014
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RM1.76
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SELL
Into Strength
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BB - RM1.32
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RM1.71
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-2.9%
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CBIP (7076)
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13/10/2014
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RM4.60
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SELL
into Strength
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BB - RM3.73
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RM4.59
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-0.3%
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Performance
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Positive
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Negative
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Neutral
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