Thursday, May 31, 2012

Market Roundup | 31 May 2012

FBM30 1580.67  +5.50points (+0.35%)   Volume 1,235mil    Value 2,900mil
 

1) KLCI rose for the 6th consecutive days closing at its day's high on persistent buying of key heavyweights led by TENAGA, PPB while regionals struggled paring its losses but remained in the red as Eurozone debt situation continue to weigh the market sentiment. Market value traded surged to RM2.9bn on month end closing activities with PCHEM, BURSA, MAXIS topping the value traded list. Broader market turned negative with decliners edging gainers 343:375. Futures closed 1580.5 (parity).
 

2) Heavyweights: TENAGA+2.3% RM6.67, PPB+5.46% RM17.00, MAYBANK+0.58% RM8.75, AXIATA+0.75% RM5.37, PBBANK+0.44% RM13.76, GENM-3.91% RM3.69, PETGAS-1.94% RM17.20, YTL-2.65% RM1.84
 

3) DBT: SYF 27.1mil @ RM0.50 (10% PUC, 2.3% discount), KURASIA 20mil @ RM0.60 (1.3% PUC), IJACOBS 12.2mil @ RM0.17 (10% PUC, 10% discount)
 

4) Situationals:

GLOTEC-12.5% RM0.105: Globaltec made its debut on the main market today topping the volume list with 150mil shares traded. Globatec is a special purpose company to facilitate the merger of three listed entities, namely Jotech, AIC and AutoV. IPO was priced at 10sen per share.


YHS+7.43% RM3.47: Company announced that its biggest shareholder YHS (S) Pte Ltd is offering RM3.60 per share to take the company private in a deal worth at RM552.6mil


5) MAXIS

1Q March 2012  Tover +4.5% RM2.23bn   Net +6% RM573m   7.6sen  In line with cons (f) RM2.33bn
 

The Group recorded a 4.5% or RM96 million increase in revenue over the preceding year, contributed by primarily, Mobile services contributing approximately 96% of the increase. Earnings grew 6% largerly due to lower tax expenses and lower write-offs in property, plant and equipment which more than compensate for a higher net finance costs, depreciation and amortisation. Net finance costs were higher as a result of additional borrowings as the Group move towards a more optimal capital structure. Depreciation and amortisation were also higher as more investments were made in expanding the network and more smart devices were made available in the market.
 

Non-voice revenue through higher sales of devices, mobile internet and SMS usage coupled with higher wireless broadband revenue as a result of a higher subscription continued to be the main growth driver as subscribers totaled 12.645m (based on its new definition adopted from 1 January 2011, where subscriptions for reporting purposes that is more reflective of the revenue generating base.) Blended monthly ARPU gained 3% to RM52.


The other main sector the company is concentrating its resources on is Home services broadband. Home services revenue grew by RM4 million during the year due to new revenue streams from Home Wireless Internet and Home Fibre Internet services which were launched in October 2011 and March 2011 respectively. Industry wide, new subscriptions are estimated to expand by around 300,000 subscribers in 2012. The company declared an interim dividend of 8sen and is on track to meet cons(f) yield of 6%. HOLD
 

6) Market - Trading direction is likely to remain uncertain as we muddle along until we get more clarity on the immediate problems in Greece and Spain. The KLCI will meet significant resistance around the 1586 levels after out performing the region in the past few sessions.

Morning call | 31 May 2012

MORNING CALL                                       31 MAY 2012

FLOWS;

BUYS: Genting, Gamuda, SPSetia

SELLS: TNB, Sime, PCHEM

Technical Stock Alert;
IOICORP (RM5.23) - Its price has rebounded 7% from a recent low of RM4.90 despite the continued weakness in commodity prices and its weaker 3Q numbers. The bounce could have been sparked by IOI's management confirming old rumours of separately listing its property arm, but no time line has been given. The current bounce has help its price bounce back above its SMA 200 but we don't think this move is sustainable due to the deteriorating fundamental outlook and view this as an opportunity to sell into the bounce as prices are expected to retest the RM4.90 lows. Sell on strength.
(PT/DN)

BURSA (RM5.98) - Bursa's removal from the MSCI index effective today has seen share price fallen from RM6.80 or 12% since the list was released on the 15th May.  Looking at the bigger picture it has fallen from its previous high of RM7.58 or 21% (10/2/2012). Volume picked up last 2 days averaging 2.3mil against usual volume of approximately 400k. The selling pressure could ease after today when most funds are expected to have rebalanced their portfolios in line with the new MSCI basket. Limited downside with RSI at oversold levels of 17 and support at RM5.80. Dividend is attractive at 4.34%. Looking for technical bounce with immediate target of RM6.20-6.50. Buy on weakness
(TYK/DN)

News Bits | 31 May 2012


Highlights of the day

§  Sime Darby (Results Review): 9MFY12: Bucyrus makes maiden contribution (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM9.32) [download report]
Sime Darby’s 9MFY12 results came in within consensus but below our expectations. Sime’s 9M12 revenue increased by 13% while adjusted net profit increased 26% y-o-y. The plantation segment posted higher earnings (+19% y-o-y) as the group achieved higher CPO prices of RM2,881/mt. The Industrial and Property segment shined through, posting another strong set of results. We revise our FY12-FY14 earnings downwards slightly to account for a wider discount to Indonesian CPO prices, and thus downgrade our TP from RM10.37 to RM9.32. Maintain HOLD.

Other reports
§  Telekom Malaysia (Results Review): 1QFY12: Within expectations (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM4.78) [download report]
§  IOI Corporation (Results Review): 9MFY12: Below expectations (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM4.74) [download report]
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  AirAsia: Banks on network
§  WCT: Eyes concession projects for land
§  Mah Sing: To build up landbank
§  Glomac: Near deal to sell complex en bloc
§  YHS: To be taken private
§  Alam Maritim: Bags Petronas Carigali contract
§  Magna Prima: Unveiling projects worth RM1.4bn
§  Petra Energy: To triple capex to RM32m this year
§  FGVH: Gets Qatar Holding as cornerstone investor
§  Automotive: Perodua aspires to build sedans
§  Construction: Extension to KLIA2 ready by year-end
§  Media: Astro unveils On-The-Go
§  Power: Sarawak Energy Bakun power sold

Global news
§  US: Pending sales of homes decrease by most in a year
§  Europe: EU proposes 'banking union'
§  Europe: Economic confidence falls to 2 1/2 year low
§  Brazil: Central bank cuts rate to record-low 8.5% as European crisis deepens
§  Global: Oil hit six-month low as risk aversion sweeps market

Market Roundup | 30 May 2012

FBM30 1575.17              +9.85points (+0.63%)           Volume 921mil             Value 1,245mil      

1) KLCI was the outperformer in the region raising to a high of 1578.28 (+12.96pts) led by key heavyweights on possible month end closing activity. Regionals were markedly lower on news China has no plans to introduce large-scale stimulus as it did during the global financial crisis and after Spain's sovereign credit rating was cut to A from AA. Broader market positive with advancers edging losers 378:331. Futures closed 1581 (6 points premium).
2) Heavyweights: CIMB+1.77% RM7.49, IOICORP+2.95% RM5.23, YTL+3.85% RM1.89, BAT+4.41% RM54.40, GENM+2.4% RM3.84, AXIATA+0.57% RM5.33, SIME+0.42% RM9.64, UMW+2.29% RM8.03
3) DBT: SKPETRO 300mil @ RM2.12 (6% PUC, 2.3% discount), BAHVEST 6.3mil @ RM0.30, HWGB 5mil @ RM0.38

4) Situationals:
PESTECH-9% RM0.91: PESTECH an integrated electric power company fell on its debut in Main market today ending at its day's low with 5mil shares traded.  IPO was price at RM1.00.

5)Sime:9mths 03/12 Rev+16% RM33.5b Net+30% RM3.05b EPS 50.77s Div 10s Results in line with con(f) RM4.09b

For 9-mths, all business segments, except for Healthcare, registered improved earnings. Earnings from Plantation+19%, due to higher CPO prices realized of RM2881/ton against RM2828/ton LY, coupled with higher FFB production +0.7%. Earnings from Property+49.9% due to increase in property development works of the group. Industrial+41% with all regions recording exceptional results except for China/HK, due to adverse local government policies which curbed the domestic construction activities. Earnings from Motor+4.6%, Energy & Utilities+64% while Healthcare -5.2%.  Qoq, Revenue-3.2%, Net-20.5%. These were largely due to lower profit from Plantation -37.5%, as a result of seasonally lower FFB production in the quarter (-21%), in spite of higher CPO ASP.
The continued worsening & prolonged Eurozone debt crisis and uncertainty over outlook of US economy are likely to result in slower global economic conditions & pace of Asian economic growth. However, the Plantation & Industrial divisions are expected to remain strong, underpinned by favorable CPO prices & robust demand from mining, logging & construction sectors for the current FY. Group had earlier set KPIs of Net profit (RM3.3b) & ROE of 13.3% for YE 06/12, which it now expect to surpass. With Industrial segment driving it's earnings growth, lumpy provisions out of the way, non-core/loss making business being sold and trading at 14x on FY06/12 EPS of 68s - BOW.

6)Mkt: heightened risk from the Eurozone as reflected in the soaring bond yields of peripheral countries, will cap the current technical bounce.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Morning Call | 30 May 2012

Morning Call                30 MAY 12 

Flows: 

Buys: CIMB, Maybank 

Sells: TNB, UEMLand, IJM  

1)Benalec (RM1.15): Share price has been consolidating near lows at the RM1.12-1.13 level. Notice slight pickup in volume in last 2 days with share price looking to move back above the 50MA of RM1.16 and MACD is cutting up. 1.18 is a neckline of small double bottom. 7 cent upside to target price 1.25. Company has been awarded reclamation rights for 3485 acres in Tg Piai and 1760 acres in Pengerang over the course of 10-15 years with possible participation in Johor's RM60bn RAPID project. Further rerating catalyst should co be awarded more reclamation jobs in Melaka, Penang and Singapore. Share price trades at a reasonable 8xPE, with a potential of 50% earnings growth in the following year. Trading buy.
(TYK/LJN)

2) JTiasa (RM8.16): shr px has been consolidating around the RM8 levels after touching a high of RM10.14 in recent run up. Technically looks poised for a rebound as MACD is cutting upwards and RSI is ticking up at 34. Current breakdown of profit contribution comes from 65% plantation and 35% timber. Its plantation landbank is only 4-5yrs old and is expected to see 30-45% growth in FFB production. Expect to play catch up to recent bounce in CPO px from RM3000/ton to current RM3180/ton. Trades at attractive PER12x - accumulate. 
(LJN)

News Bits | 30 May 2012

Highlights of the day
§  Sunway Bhd (Results Review): 1QFY12: Slow quarter (Upgrade from HOLD to BUY, TP: RM2.65) [download report]
1QFY12 was a slow quarter for Sunway Bhd as most of the Group’s divisions reported lower y-o-y earnings. Net profit of RM64.4m came in lower than our and market expectations, making up 13% and 18% of our and consensus’ estimates, respectively. Revenue dropped by 2% y-o-y due to low billings and slow sales. We view the Group’s sluggish performance was simply weighed down by seasonal effect. Our numbers and target price remain unchanged, but we upgrade our Hold call to a BUY as Sunway’s share price has depreciated. The stock is cheaply trading at FY12F PE of 7.0x. 

§  IJM Corporation (Results Review): 4QFY12: Record profit delivered (Maintain BUY, TP: RM6.36) [download report]
IJM’s FY12 results came in broadly within expectations, delivering a record high adjusted net profit of RM433.8m, up 15% y-o-y on the back of topline growth of 21% annually. Operating profit contribution from construction is expected to catch up with the other divisions, reaching c.15% by FY13 from 8% currently, as key projects in its outstanding RM4.3bn orderbook enter full swing. We remain sanguine on the prospects of IJM securing its portion of West Coast Expressway infrastructure works (c.RM4.2bn) once the concession agreement is duly signed. While we make no changes to our FY13 – FY14 EPS forecast, we reduce our sum-of-parts target price for IJM to RM6.36  from RM7.02 previously, after imputing current forward peer average P/E ratios into the property development and plantation SOP components and FY13 – FY14 PATMI, lower by 15% and 5% than our previous assumptions. Maintain BUY..

Other reports
§  Lafarge Malayan Cement (Results Review): 1QFY12: Down due to seasonal factors (Maintain BUY, TP: RM7.97) [download report]
§  Genting Plantations (Results Review): 1QFY12: Below expectations (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM8.78) [download report]
§  Star Publications (Company Update): Defensive play in media sector (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM3.34) [download report]
§  Newz Bits [download report]

Other Malaysian news
§  YTL Corp: To pay dividends in shares, sell warrants
§  Maybank: In talks to keep BII stake
§  Hong Leong Bank: To raise funds for expansion
§  MMC Corp: To submit KTMB study earliest in July
§  KPJ: To buy more hospitals in the region
§  Hap Seng: Doubles capex
§  IJM Land: Targets RM2.5bn new launches
§  Top-Glove: To automate plants

Global news
§  US: Consumer confidence falls to four-month low
§  US: Home prices fell at slower pace in year ended March
§  Europe: Germany’s inflation weakened in May as energy prices retreated
§  China: Government has no plans for new large-scale stimulus

Our on-line trading portal at www.ecmmoney.com

Market Roundup | 29 May 2012

FBM30 1565.32     +10.38points (+0.67%)  Volume 756.5mil     Value 984.4mil      
1) KLCI rose for the 4th consecutive days inline with the stronger region as investors look for possible stimulus from the Chinese Government. This is despite elevated bond yield for Eurozone with Spanish banks facing funding constraint. Financials+0.73% led the rally of heavyweights in the afternoon session after hints by Prime Minister of relaxing the 30% foreign ownership ruling. Broader market was positive with advancers leading decliners 416:284. Futures closed 1567 (2 points premium).

2) Heavyweights: MAYBANK+1.28% RM8.68, CIMB+1.24% RM7.36, IOICORP+1.6% RM5.08, SIME+0.84% RM9.60, GENM+3.02% RM3.75, AXIATA+0.95% RM5.30, PBBANK+0.59% RM13.74, PCHEM-0.75% RM6.65

3) DBT: REXIT 1.8mil @ RM0.28, LITRAK 1.5mil @ RM3.45

4) Situationals:
ALAM+1.87% RM0.545: Company’s wholly owned subsidiary was awarded a RM125.6mil contract from ExxonMobil. The contract value is for the provision of 1 accommodation barge for 18 months and an extention option exercisable for another 12 months.

BURSA-1.77% RM6.12: MSCI May 2012 Semi Annual Index Review has seen the deletion of Bursa from the MSCI index. This will take effect after the close of 31 May 2012.

5) GENTING PLANTATIONS
1Q MAR 2012   Tover RM272.6m    Net -19% RM77.3m   EPS 10.4sen     34% below cons (f) RM466m
The YOY decline in profit during the quarter reflects the impact of lower palm product selling prices and higher operating expenditure in the Plantation segment. The Group achieved average selling prices for crude palm oil and palm kernel of RM3,179 per metric tonne and RM1,941 per metric tonne respectively in the first quarter, down 14% and 36% respectively YOY. The Group’s fresh fruit bunches production was 3% higher in 1Q 2012 compared with the corresponding period of 2011. Higher operating costs arising from wage and material price inflation, along with increased fertiliser application and recruitment related administrative expenses.

Its Indonesian division continued to record start up losses but remains the primary source of acreage growth with areas progressively reaching maturity over the course of the year. The scheduled completion of palm oil processing facilities would provide an added boost to the Indonesia operations whilst plantation development activities continue. A recently‐announced proposed joint venture for the development and cultivation of 74,390 hectares of oil palm plantations in Kalimantan Tengah also bodes positively for the Group’s production growth and returns in the longer term.

6) Market - Increased concerns over Spain debt issues could derail the current technical rebound but bulls will look towards US employment numbers at the end of the week for signs of a recovery there and aid sentiment.