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FLOWS
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Monday, 15 September, 2014
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BUY
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YTL, SKPETRO, TM
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SELL
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ARMADA, GENM, UMW
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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BARAKAH (7251)
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15/9/2014
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RM1.40
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.60
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The last 3 trading days saw significant increase in
trading volume at the RM1.39/1,40 levels, signifying buyers are willing to
accumulate at these levels. Barakah has corrected by >9% since the 2Q14
results and 15% from its July high. It is oversold with wide divergence on
the macd & RSI at 31%. The 9M14 results were lower as the
pipelay barge, KL101, was idle after it completed its charter with Pertamina,
and from higher front-loaded costs as KL101 was been prepared for the RM1.5b
Pan Malaysian T&I contract which was mobilised end May. KL101 was
previously chartered as an accommodation barge but will now be utilized as a
pipelay barge which will have higher charter rates. Management guided that
they expect @ RM300m top-line contribution to be recognized this year and
they do not foresee a need for any additional third-party vessel for the
contract which means higher margins. Hence, 2H14 results will show
significant improvements compared to 1H14. Barakah has a current order book
of RM2.38b (a healthy 3.6x FY14 consensus turnover), a bid book of RM2.6b and
trades at FY15 PER of 9.2x. Accumulate
(PT)
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BAT (4162)
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15/9/2014
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RM73.36
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Trading SELL
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RM66.00
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Stock has outperformed the KLCI index by nearly 12% since
the KLCI index peaked at 1896.23pts in July. We advocate to take
advantage of this short term rally from the recent cigarette price
hike to sell into strength. Global bond yields have bottomed and are
starting to climb quite sharply which is not conducive to dividend yielding
stocks. US 10-year bond yield has risen >11% since its low at the end of
August. During the May/June fear of the Federal Reserve tapering of its QE
programme & the ensuing increase in US 10-year bond yield by 9%, BAT
corrected >11% from its June high before it bottomed in late July.
With Budget Day in a month's time, there is also the negativity
regarding higher excise duties on tobacco/cigarettes especially when the
government is desperate to reduce its high fiscal deficit, and this will
dampen sentiment on the stock. There is also the possibility
of further down trading to illicit brands by consumers in the
current difficult economic environment of rising cost & lower
purchasing power. BAT trades at demanding PER of 23.3x for FY14 versus its
historical average of 18.7x & KLCI Index's 16.9x. Trading sell,
buy back <RM66.00
(PT) |
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Calls for SEPT WEEK 1/ WEEK 2
2014
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STOCK
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Initiation
Dates
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Initiation
price
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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LAST PRICE
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% Change
since Initiated
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TENAGA (5347)
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8/9/2014
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RM12.26
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ACCUMULATE
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RM13.50
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RM12.48
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+1.7%
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AMBANK (1015)
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8/9/2014
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RM6.89
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Trading BUY
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RM8.00
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RM6.76
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-1.9%
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STEMLFE (0137)
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9/9/2014
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RM0.465
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Trading BUY
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RM0.465
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RM0.47
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+1.0%
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HLBANK (5819)
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9/9/2014
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RM14.82
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TRIM
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-
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RM14.70
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-0.9%
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DAYANG (5141)
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10/9/2014
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RM3.50
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ACCUMULATE
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RM4.26
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RM3.50
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0.0%
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PRESBHD (5204)
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10/9/2014
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RM2.07
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Trading BUY
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RM2.40
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RM2.05
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-1.0%
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PERDANA (7108)
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11/9/2014
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RM1.74
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.95
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RM1.78
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+2.2%
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THHEAVY (7206)
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11/9/2014
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RM0.83
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ACCUMULATE
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RM0.94
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RM0.825
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-0.7%
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ECONBHD (5253)
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12/9/2014
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RM0.965
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Trading BUY
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RM1.20
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RM1.03
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+6.7%
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GAMUDA (5398)
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12/9/2014
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RM4.83
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BUY
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RM5.50
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RM4.83
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0.0%
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Given that our call initiated on the 29/8 to buy
Censof (5195) has achieved our target of RM0.58,
we advocate a take profit on the stock.
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Performance
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Positive
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Negative
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Neutral
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