FLOWS
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Friday, 3 October, 2014
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BUY
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CIMB, GAMUDA, SKPETRO
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SELL
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UEMS, IHH, MAYBANK
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STOCK ALERT
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STOCK NAME
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DATE
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PRICE
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BUY/SELL
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TARGET PRICE
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ELSOFT (0090)
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3/10/2014
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RM1.68
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Trading SELL
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-
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The Malaysian semiconductor stocks has a high positive
correlation with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), the SOX being the leading indicator for the
last 5 years. This is not unexpected as the US technology-related product
companies are the main patent owners & end buyers of global semiconductor
chips although they may be assembled & packaged in the Far East. Based on
this high correlation and ELsoft’s own potential technical weakness, we are
advocating a trading sell call on ELsoft. The recent SOX’s rally took it to a
new 12-year high but it failed to exhibit another weekly macd positive
crossover, and furthermore its subsequent actions had confirmed a negative
weekly divergence since 2011. Elsoft’s weekly macd is on the verge of forming
a dead cross and is also likely to be followed by a negative divergence. In addition,
Elsoft’s valuation is higher than its historical average with FY14 PER of 21x
versus historical PER of 19x. Trading sell
(PT)
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FABER (1368)
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3/10/2014
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RM3.21
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ACCUMULATE
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RM3.50
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Possesses the defensive qualities that funds will be
looking to hide in the current risk-averse markets. A major catalyst, the
S&P agreement with UEM Group to purchase 100% Propel for RM500m (via
Rm250m in cash & shares - 125m shares @ RM2 per share) and 100% OGB
for RM651m (via 325.5m share @ RM2 per share) is expected to be approved
& completed by this month. This will substantially enhance Faber
defensive business as in addition to their cash cow healthcare services
concession for Malaysian hospitals, Faber is adding further concession business
with the maintenance of highways via these acquisitions. These acquisitions
are earnings accretive as they are acquired at historical PER of 8.9x &
9.6x, relatively cheaper than Faber's current historical PER of 18.7x,
reducing the proforma FY13 PER to 14.3x post acquisitions. In addition,
with less volatility & better predictability in
earnings & income growth from these concessions, there could be
a rerating of the stock especially with dividend yield increasing to more
than 4%, given the low capex requirements of these type of activities.
Accumulate
(PT)
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Calls for SEPT WEEK 4 / OCT
WEEK 1 2014
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STOCK
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Initiation
Dates
|
Initiation
price
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BUY/SELL
|
TARGET PRICE
|
LAST PRICE
|
% Change
since Initiated
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WCT (9679)
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26/9/2014
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RM2.18
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Trading BUY
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RM2.40
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RM2.16
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-1.0%
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NAIM (5073)
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26/9/2014
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RM3.51
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ACCUMULATE
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RM4.75
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RM3.35
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-4.6%
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GADANG (9261)
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29/9/2014
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RM1.73
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Trading BUY
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RM2.10
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RM1.71
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-1.2%
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TAANN (5012)
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29/9/2014
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RM3.87
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Trading BUY
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RM4.50
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RM3.85
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-0.6%
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ORIENT (4006)
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30/9/2014
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RM7.79
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BUY
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RM9.00
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RM7.55
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+3.1%
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TENAGA (5347)
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30/9/2014
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RM12.28
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ACCUMULATE
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RM13.50
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RM12.36
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+0.6%
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IJM (3336)
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1/10/2014
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RM6.47
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BUY
|
RM7.20
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RM6.42
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-0.7%
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UNISEM(5005)
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1/10/2014
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RM1.63
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Trading BUY
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RM1.80
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RM1.62
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-0.7%
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WELLCALL (7231)
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2/10/2014
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RM1.63
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ACCUMULATE
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RM1.83
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RM1.62
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-0.7%
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MBMR (5983)
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2/10/2014
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RM2.85
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Trading BUY
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RM3.50
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RM2.82
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-1.1%
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Given that
our call initiated on the 22/9 to buy TMCLIFE (0101) has achieved our target
of RM0.60,
we advocate a take profit on the stock.
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Performance
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Positive
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Negative
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Neutral
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